Giants’ offseason identity begins with decision to pursue Soto originally appeared on NBC Sports Bay Area
SAN FRANCISCO — The The Giants spent months preparing to pursue Aaron Judge during the 2022 MLB offseason and made a detailed plan for his visit to San Francisco just before Thanksgiving. When they had to move to Carlos Correa After Judge returned to the New York Yankees, they spent much less time trying to impress the free agent.
Some team employees who had been involved in the judge race didn’t even know Correa was the organization’s new top target until a deal was reached. while waiting for this physical examof course – leaked on social media.
This offseason has taught the Giants a lot of lessons, including an obvious one: When it comes to top free agents, the team with the biggest contract almost always wins.
There are exceptions, and Judge was one of them. He used the Giants and then the San Diego Padres to get what he wanted from the Yankees, then came back to the only team he had ever known. This season, Judge teamed with Juan Soto to lead the Yankees to their first World Series appearance in 15 years, and as Soto prepares to become the best free agent on the market, the Giants must remember that lesson of 2022.
Correa agreed to strike at Oracle Park because the Giants offered him the biggest contract by far. Sure, the shortstop would have stood at the podium and talked about how much he appreciated the franchise’s history, fan base and commitment to winning, but the truth would have been that he was a giant because they agreed to pay him $350. million.
Soto plans to run his own free agency pretty much the same way. This isn’t Judge and this isn’t Shohei Ohtani pitching three teams with the same unique conditions, but ultimately sticking to his plan to become a Los Angeles Dodger. League executives believe Soto will win the biggest contract, period, and he did nothing to change that idea after the Yankees lost the World Series.
Asked multiple times that evening about the possibility of remaining in New York, Soto stuck to his message, saying he was looking forward to free agency and would be open to all 30 teams. At the general manager’s meetings Wednesday, agent Scott Boras made it clear his team was aiming as high as possible, likening his client to the Mona Lisa.
“He literally has 15 more years to offer,” Boras said. told reporters in San Antonio.
This makes starting free agency relatively simple for the Giants and new president of baseball operations Buster Posey.
The first thing they need to do this offseason is decide whether to attend or not. Are they willing to make an offer well over $500 million early in the process? Will they wait when Soto and Boras start talking about $600 million or $700 million, which is what Ohtani got, with almost all of it postponed?
Are they ready to take on not only the Yankees, but also Steve Cohen and the New York Mets? Are they willing to outbid Cohen if that’s what it takes? Are they willing to endure going a little crazy to land a future Hall of Fame?
Only a few people know these answers, led by the new manager. Posey not only participates in daily meetings regarding the roster, but also attends board meetings to manage the Giants’ finances and overall plans.
If San Francisco is willing to go all the way and offer the biggest deal, then they’re going to have another winter in the middle of the rumor mill, and they should be aggressive from the start. When the previous regime failed to recruit Bryce Harper, one of the major problems was the delay in Farhan Zaidi joining the candidacy. The feeling from Harper’s camp was that the Giants were still one step behind the Philadelphia Phillies.
If the Giants don’t want to be up front with Soto, they should probably pivot quickly. There’s too much going on with this roster to spend weeks waiting for a superstar who will only come to San Francisco if the contract offer is bigger than all the others.
While the Giants were waiting for Judge to make a decision two years ago, they agreed to a three-year deal with outfielder Mitch Haniger, but that was a very different situation. Haniger was guaranteed just $43.5 million, a deal that could very easily fit into the payroll even if the judge later said yes.
If the Giants aren’t fully committed to winning the Soto bid, they run the risk of missing out on other ways to improve their roster. The biggest contract in franchise history remains the one Posey signed in 2012, and it’s hard to imagine an organization with such a track record signing a Soto AND a Corbin Burnes, or a Blake Snell, or a Willy Adames . If anyone repeats the Dodgers’ 2023 offseason — a billion on two players — there’s a good chance it’s Cohen.
The Giants need Soto for many reasons, on and off the field, but they have other holes as well. They could use a high-end starter now that Snell has opted out. They need a shortstop who can move Tyler Fitzgerald to second and make the infield a strength. They could probably use a little more power at first base while they wait for Bryce Eldridge to arrive. If Soto doesn’t wear orange and black, they’ll need someone else to provide more production for the outfield.
In 2022, after Judge said no and the Giants moved away from Correa, they made a late pivot to Michael Conforto, Taylor Rogers and Luke Jackson. Add in Haniger, Ross Stripling and Sean Manaea and it ended up being a very expensive, starless and disaster offseason.
Last year, the Giants responded to Ohtani and Yamamoto’s disappointment by signing Jung Hoo Lee and then deciding to be patient. It was a logical plan and they ended up with Matt Chapman, Jorge Soler and Snell in the spring, but they certainly regretted not putting the pieces of the puzzle in place a few months earlier.
This time around, Posey has the financial flexibility to be aggressive and do the heavy lifting early, but first, he has to make this very important decision.
The Giants have finished second too many times over the past decade. Are they willing to write down a number guaranteeing this won’t happen again? Because if they’re not, they should make this decision now and spend the next month finding another way to add important pieces to the roster while other big market teams wait to see where the Soto bidding war.
