It can be so easy to panic in fantasy football. After all, we have a very limited amount of time to observe and analyze a player’s performance. But fear not – Dalton Del Don is here to assess exactly how worried we should be – if at all.
Jayden Reed, Green Bay Packers
Reed has averaged just 3.5 targets over the last two games, and his road participation (61%) fell below Romeo Doubs (93%) and Christian Watson (79%) last week. He also hasn’t gained any rushing yards in the last three games. Reed remains the WR14 in fantasy points per game this season, but he is the WR53 in expected fantasy pointsjust ahead of his now healthy teammate Dontayvion Wicks (WR56). Reed ranks 42nd in targets (41) and 50th in target share (17.6%). He has only seen four targets in the red zone this season.
Green Bay’s pass catchers are healthier than ever, but Jordan Love’s status for Week 9 is in question after suffering a groin injury last game (the Packers might be more inclined to take him rest with time off for the upcoming week 10). Green Bay recorded a staggering number -18% decline rate compared to forecasts in two games with Malik Willis starting earlier this year, and he attempted just five passes in two quarters last week.
Reed is a great player who recorded the second best Passing mark (141.0) when targeted this season, and he gets a salivating matchup against a Lions defense this week, allowing by far the most fantasy points in the slot. He will no doubt release more peak weeks this year.
But a lack of volume (and the possibility of Love missing another game) makes Reed a mid-tier WR2 moving forward.
Subscribe to Yahoo Fantasy Forecast at Apple Podcasts, Spotify, YouTube Or wherever you listen.
JK Dobbins, Los Angeles Chargers
Dobbins turned 24 chances into just 68 yards against a vulnerable Saints defense last week. Javonte Williams scored his only two touchdowns of the season the previous week against New Orleans. Any guard can have a mediocre game, but there are concerns that Dobbins could burn out following Achilles surgery. He had 9.9 YPC and led the league in missed tackles forced per attempt through the first two weeks (against the Panthers and Raiders), but he managed a modest 3.1 YPC while ranking 45th in MTF/att more than five games since.
Dobbins wouldn’t be the first RB to flash for a few games coming back from Achilles surgery only to disappear (James Robinson was the latest example). But this is pure speculation, and Dobbins’ role has remained elitist; he saw season highs in snap share (81%) and goals (seven) last week. Kimani Vidal now appears as an alternative.
Additionally, Justin Herbert is third in pass attempts since Los Angeles’ leave after being one of the most run-heavy teams in the league previously. Volume has been good, but there is some concern given Dobbins’ extreme decline in effectiveness following major surgery, a change in Los Angeles’ offensive philosophy and a tighter upcoming schedule.
Jaylen Waddle, Miami Dolphins
Waddle disappointed in Tua Tagovailoa’s return last week, finishing as the WR57 while committing a bad fall in a favorable matchup with Tyreek Hill hitting. Despite being a meaningless game, Waddle now sits with a low 15% target share on Tagovailoa’s 100 pass attempts this season; Hill has a target share of 28%, and De’Von Achane’s is also higher at 19%.
That said, there are reasons to be optimistic. Miami scored a season-high 27 points in Tagovailoa’s return last week, when the Dolphins’ success rate was neutral. went from worst to first. Waddle had 122 targets and 1,380 receiving yards on his previous 17 matches with Tagovailoa before last week, and there is also upside potential if Hill were to decline.
Still, Miami’s offense hasn’t looked as explosive this season, even with Tagovailoa, and Achane’s emergence in the passing game will continue to hurt Waddle’s volume. Waddle will be fine and remains a top-25 WR, but there is obvious concern for those who drafted him who are expecting more in 2024.
CJ Stroud, Houston Texans
Stroud appeared on the panic meter last week, and things have only gotten worse. He finished as QB26 in a very favorable home game and lost Stefon Diggs for the season. Stroud has now only finished in the top five fantasy quarterbacks twice in his career, the last time coming in Week 12 of last season.
This isn’t necessarily Stroud’s fault, as Houston’s offensive line and injuries contributed greatly. Stroud had 8.0 YPA and averaged 270.4 passing yards in games with Nico Collins during his career, but those numbers drop to 6.8 and 229.8 with Collins off the field (h/ t RotoViz). Diggs is now out for the year with a torn ACL, and Tank Dell continues to look like a different player coming back from a broken leg; Dell ordered a target share of 11.1%, the lowest of the season last week despite the absence of Collins and Diggs. Dell Ranking #86 in yards per route (1.10) this season.
Stroud will have a tough game Thursday night against a Jets secondary allowing the second-fewest passing yards per game (180.0), so he belongs on the fantasy benches. Collins’ possible return in week 10 that will certainly help (and the schedule becomes more favorable), but Stroud is the QB22 this season, so his fantasy managers may already be around to deal.
