Patriots vs. Dolphins Preview: These Key Matchups Will Decide the Outcome originally appeared on NBC Sports Boston
FOXBORO – At the end of the week, a line from team reporter Evan Lazar on the Catch-22 podcast caught fire. The Patriots “are on the brink of mutiny,” Lazar said, after back-to-back horrific losses.
Lazar later went on 98.5 The Sports Hub saying that he had made a mistake in his use of the word “mutiny”. The players also strongly opposed this idea in the locker room. Membership for Jerod Mayo it’s not a problem at this point for the head coach, he said Friday.
But that doesn’t mean things are quaint for a team that has struggled offensively and defensively of late.
“It’s always frustrating not to win,” Mayo said. “The guys have been working a lot and everyone wants to try to find a solution now while we go through this transition. People are really frustrated, and that’s a normal human response. I feel pretty good about how this is helping us. let’s go.
“I used an analogy this morning. It’s almost like flying through the clouds, but you have to use the instruments until the sky is clear. When I took this job, I knew that the lumps were going to appear. It’s part of the transition.”
This week’s game against the Dolphins without Tua Tagovailoa represents the ultimate opportunity to “make it.” Mind business, and discussions about membership, culture, and “mutiny” are put on hold. Don’t do it? The questions will persist.
Let’s move on to the games that will matter most on Sunday at Gillette Stadium…
Match that will determine the result
Patriots offensive line vs. Dolphins front four
It’s unclear who the Patriots will have available to play in the trenches on Sunday. As bad as it’s been for them up front – they’re last in the league with a quarterback pressure rate of 47.4 percent, and they’re 30th with a pressure time of 2.42 seconds – it could get worse. .
David Andrews is out, but his primary backup, Nick Leverett, is questionable with an ankle injury. Practice squad center Bryan Hudson saw significant first-team reps during the week.
Meanwhile, tackling and guarding are also disrupted.
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Starting right guard Layden Robinson is questionable with wrist and ankle issues, meaning right tackle Mike Onwenu could kick inside. That would leave an opening at right tackle to fill. The Patriots could also use guards Sidy Sow and Michael Jordan to play alongside whatever center the Patriots choose to play at center.
At tackle, Vederian Lowe is questionable due to a knee injury, but he could return to the field after missing the last two weeks with a knee issue. Demontrey Jacobs made his first NFL start in Week 4 and could be back on the field against the Dolphins.
It’s not pretty. And how the line holds up will determine the outcome.
Miami has, for the most part this season, managed to generate pressure against better lines with just four passers. They have the second-best pressure rate in the NFL when rushing with the four. They lost Jaelan Phillips – arguably their most talented passer – to a torn ACL last week, but they have plenty of contributors to get after the quarters. Their pressure leaders this season are veterans Calais Campbell and Zach Sieler. They also have a first-round pick, Chop Robinson, who brings plenty of explosiveness to the table in an attempt to upset Jacoby Brissett.
The Patriots struggled to protect against one-on-one attacks and blitzes. If they fail to set the record straight on that front on Sunday, they could lose what appears to be the most winnable game in this next set of winnable games on their schedule.
A match that will surprise you
Tyler Huntley vs. Patriots “trap rush”
There’s a bit of back-and-forth that has to happen when the Patriots attempt to execute what they call their “trap rush.” On the one hand, they would like to harass the opposing quarterback. On the other, they know they need to maintain the integrity of the edge route and keep said quarterback in the pocket until they methodically collapse the pocket.
This is the kind of crush rush that has already been described as a “crush rush.” Players must temper their passing instincts, recalling so as not to destroy the field and leave an escape route in their wake. It’s not easy, but it’s necessary.
The problem for the Patriots is that this has been asked of them over the past three weeks and they have not been able to fulfill their duty in this regard consistently enough. Dolphins quarterback Tyler Huntley won’t be able to hurt the Patriots the same way Geno Smith, Aaron Rodgers and Brock Purdy can. But Huntley, if given time and space, has the ability to generate positive plays.
Purdy had more time to throw in Week 4 against the Patriots than any other quarterback, according to NextGen Stats, averaging 3.47 seconds from snap to throw. If the Patriots allow Huntley to extend plays and get out of the pocket this weekend, they may not like the results.
First, his weapons – Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle – are among the most dangerous threats in the NFL. Second, Huntley has shown in his four starts in 2022, succeeding Lamar Jackson in Baltimore, that he can make some plays on the move. Among qualifying quarterbacks that season, on passes completed from outside the pocket, he was eighth in yards per attempt and ninth in his percentage of plays generating positive EPA.
You probably don’t expect Huntley to play in the passing game. And you’re not wrong to expect things to happen that way. Huntley averaged 4.4 yards per attempt last week against the Titans and put together a paltry QBR figure of just 12.1.
But if the Patriots don’t contain him, he might just surprise you. In a “I didn’t think this guy I was going to ruin my weekend!”, sort of.
A match that will take years off your life
Dolphins speed vs. Patriots coverage
Last week, Huntley missed a wide-open hill late in the third quarter deep downfield for a game-changing touchdown. He likely won’t take every opportunity the speed demons at his disposal — including running back De’Von Achane — present to him. But as long as that speed is on the field, it has to be a concern for the Patriots.
While the secondary may be the most talented unit in the Patriots locker room, their defense currently ranks 26th in EPA by dropback and 27th in pass rate. They allow the 12th most yards per pass attempt on throws that travel 20 yards or more beyond the line of scrimmage, and they gave up a 103.0 quarterback rating on those types of throws , according to Sports Info Solutions.
Until the Patriots resolve some issues with their on-field defense, facing HIll and Waddle should be a nerve-wracking proposition – no matter who plays quarterback. Given the way the Patriots offense is performing, all Miami would need to do on Sunday is get a deep target and that could change the outcome.
