This story is from Keegan Matheson’s Blue Jays Beat newsletter. To read the full newsletter, Click here. And subscribe to receive it regularly in your inbox.
TORONTO — Unless the Blue Jays shock the baseball world, Alex Manoah will enter spring training in three months as the biggest story in camp.
Manoah is disastrous The 2023 season has been stunning, one that expanded into even more uncomfortable territory later in the season as a rift grew between the ’22 Cy Young Award finalist and the organization. We don’t have the whole story yet, but there’s more than just a delivery to fix.
Toronto’s focus will be on position players this offseason, and rightfully so. The Blue Jays need to move back into the offensive direction, addressing third base, second base and left field – at a minimum – but those needs are simple and clear. When it comes to Manoah and the fifth spot in the rotation, clouds are starting to form.
Speaking at the general managers’ meetings in Arizona on Tuesday, general manager Ross Atkins gave early support to Manoah in what should be a competition for that final spot.
“I feel like he’s already earned the right to have a solid head start,” Atkins said. “I feel so good about him getting back to the 2021-22 version of himself. This is a very good starting point for us.
The first four are defined. Kevin Gausman, Chris Bassitt, Jose Berrios and Yusei Kikuchi give the Blue Jays a starting base that most big league clubs would be happy to have. This veteran group was so effective in 2023, but just as importantly, they were healthy. All four have made at least 31 starts, which just isn’t something you see a lot of in the modern game. When Manoah was first picked, Trevor Richards stepped in as opener, and by the time Manoah was picked again, Hyun Jin Ryu’s timely return from Tommy John surgery saved the day.
It won’t always be this simple.
In 2022, Ross Stripling has kept the Blue Jays from hitting their rotation depth. Last season, it was Richards and Ryu paired with the rest of the rotation in impeccable health. It’s unfair to call it luck, as Toronto’s pitchers and coaching staff deserve more credit than they got for the durability of this group, but the Blue Jays need to prepare for a season that doesn’t go as well, one where seven, eight or ten entries are required.
“I’m so excited about Alek,” Atkins said. “I feel so good about him going into this year, given his work, the experiences he’s had, his motivation and where he is.”
That’s encouraging, and Manoah will have every chance imaginable to right the ship, but a team with dreams of making the World Series isn’t going to expose itself to major risks like that. Even though the majority of Toronto’s spending will be on at-bats, another MLB-quality starter or swingman would be a smart addition to protect the Blue Jays from the unknowns of Manoah — and the likelihood that they’ll need a lot more of rotation depth in 2024 than they did. the last two seasons.
THE top of the market features Aaron Nola, Blake Snell, Jordan Montgomery and Japanese sensation Yoshinobu Yamamoto, but those are likely well over the Blue Jays’ pitching budget. More realistic targets would be towards the lower end of the market, where names like Nick Martinez and Sean Manaea offer some versatility. You have veterans like Kyle Gibson or players on the rise like Tyler Mahle, who the Blue Jays have valued in the past. None of these options are perfect, but that’s why they’re not in the same sentence as Nola and her friends.
Of course, some of this may come from internally, but it hasn’t gone well in recent years. Prospect #1 Ricky Tiedemann represents the Blue Jays’ next big prospect and he should open his doors at Triple-A Buffalo, which is a good starting point for the organization. Beyond that, expect other additions like Drew Hutchison and Zach Thompson from a year ago, although Toronto will hope the 2024 versions perform better.
By focusing so much on adding offense, the Blue Jays are careful to protect their strengths. They were one of the best defensive teams in baseball in 2023 and their pitching, including the bullpen, was excellent. Protecting the floor from this rotation isn’t priority #1, but make no mistake, it’s on the list.
At this point, the definition of a positive outcome for Manoah changed. If he can stay in the rotation as a No. 5 starter who eats up innings and avoids explosive play, the Blue Jays would be thrilled. This is still a real potential outcome for a pitcher who should be one of the most motivated people in a major league camp in February, but Toronto needs to be protected against the other end of that spectrum, right at the case where.
