It’s officially “draft season” for fantasy basketball, with most managers running mock drafts before getting down to the “real thing.” Rotoworld’s Raphielle Johnson and Noah Rubin recently participated in a Salary simulation project for 12 managers (click the link to see it unfold) hosted by Fantasy Basketball International Adam King, filling out rosters for a 9-team head-to-head league. Salary simulations are interesting because most take one of two approaches to filling out their rosters.
For some, it’s the “stars and back-ups” approach, allocating most of their salary cap space to two or three players, then paying the minimum (or a bit more) to round out the squad. Others prefer a more balanced approach. Although that may mean missing out on a Victor Wembanyama, Nikola JokicOr Luka DoncicThe overall list could be better balanced. Below are the results of this mock project in order of winning applications and some initial conclusions.
Player’s winning bid
Victor Wembanyama 92
Nikola Jokic 83
It didn’t take long for things to get crazy, as Wembanyama was the first player named. $92 is an extraordinary amount for a player, even with Wemby’s perceived potential (and his floor price). His price is expected to average in the $70s by mid-October. Those bids also impacted Jokic’s final price, with the three-time MVP being the fourth player named. Like Wembanyama, the Joker’s price is expected to be in the $70s (probably a few dollars lower) as we get closer to the regular season.
Luka Doncic 65
Three other players were sold at $60 or more, and they are in the top six of our preseason 9-price (per game) rankings. Doncic and SGA at $65 is not a major surprise; the gap between them and Wembanyama/Jokic was too wide, but this is happening in mid-September. As for Davis, $60 may be a bit much for some, given his injury history, but he has played 76 regular-season games in 2023-24. With the state of the Lakers’ roster, they need AD to play as often as possible to have a chance of being a factor in the West.
Joel Embiid 41
Jayson Tatum 41
Was Embiid’s final price too low? That argument can certainly be made, given his per-game production. However, last season’s injuries may have scared off some managers, not to mention Embiid’s participation in the Paris Olympics. A full offseason to recover may be the preference of fantasy managers, but Embiid can’t be faulted for his decision to contribute to the Olympic gold medal team. If his availability is closer to the 2021-22 and 2022-23 seasons, Embiid could be a steal if his average price stays in the 40s.
LaMelo Ball 39
Trae Young 37
Devin Booker 37
James Harden 35
Ball’s price has been a revelation. He’s shown the ability to be an impactful option in fantasy basketball, especially in the 2021-22 season. However, he’s played 58 games since then, including 22 in the 2023-24 campaign. That hasn’t stopped managers in this mock draft from pushing the price up, with Ball being offered at $39. Should LaMelo be more expensive than Young or Holmgren? It’s a fair question, but this wasn’t a case where either of those prices were seriously overpriced.
Leonard’s $35 price tag may indicate lingering concerns after his early exit from USA Basketball’s pre-Olympic training camp. Will he be ready when the season starts? And can Kawhi handle more of the workload with Paul George move on to PhiladelphiaAt $35, Harden could be a steal if that’s where his price lands in October.
Kyrie Irving 33
Kevin Durant 32
Tyrese Maxey 32
Paul George 30
De’Aaron Fox 29
Evan Mobley 29
Alpen Sengun 28
Brunson at $27 and Lillard at $26 could be steals in the leagues of the category, given the importance of their respective teams. The same can be said for Markkanen ($25), though there are concerns about a possible shutdown if Utah falls out of playoff contention. However, fantasy managers should avoid assuming a player will be shut down in a salary or “conventional” draft. There’s plenty of time before the February trade deadline to make adjustments based on where a team is headed.
LeBron James 26
Damian Lillard 26
Lauri Markkanen 25
Jaren Jackson 25
Bam Adebayo 25
Yes Morant 22
Jaylen Brown 21
Morant ($22), Brown ($21) and Williamson ($21) were among the value buys in this mock draft. Simply put, this exercise served as a reminder that managers can cash in with patience and financial discipline. Quickley ($20) could also fall into this category, as the Raptors made it clear how highly they value him with that lucrative extension this summer. Was Siakam ($19) undervalued? He’ll have a full training camp to work with Tyrese Haliburton and the others Pacerswhich should improve cohesion on the ground.
Jimmy Butler 21
Desmond Bane 19
Franz Wagner 19
Trey Murphy 19
Myles Turner 16
Jalen Duren 16
Some players in this price range, including Murray, Bridges and Allen, represent incredible value. The former is concerned that he didn’t look fully fit at the end of Denver’s season or when he played for Canada at the Olympics. That hasn’t deterred players Nuggets to agree to an extension with Murray, who becomes an even more important player for his team with another starter (Kentavious Caldwell-Pape) is leaving this summer.
Jamal Murray 15
Mark Williams 15
D’Angelo Russell 14
Julius Randle 13
OG Anunoby 13
Zach LaVine 13
Bradley Beal 12
Jordan Poole 11
Josh Giddey 11
Rudy Gobert 11
Jabari Smith 11
Clint Capela 11
CJ McCollum 10
Jusuf Nurkic 9
Coby White 8
Michael Porter 8
Naz Reid 5
Scoot Henderson 5
Al Horford 3
Deni Avdija 3
PJ Washington 3
Josh Hart 2
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope 1
Gary Trent 1
De’Anthony Melton 1
Raphielle’s team
Nikola Jokic ($83)
Tyrese Maxey ($32)
Jayson Tatum ($41)
Jaylen Brunson ($27)
Naz Reid ($5)
John Collins ($5)
Mike Conley ($1)
De’Anthony Melton ($1)
Max Strus ($1)
Tari Eason ($1)
Aaron Gordon ($1)
Monk Malik ($1)
Buddy Hield ($1)
Raphielle’s thoughts:I entered the draft to avoid spending more than $55 on a single player. Four picks later, that option fell through with Jokic being the target. I won, but at what cost? That proved to be a problem in the later stages of the draft, as I lost low-cost targets like Terry Rozier and Jonathan Isaac. While the top of this list looks good, there’s not much margin for error when it comes to injuries.
Noah’s Team
Kevin Durant ($32)
Domantas Sabonis ($27)
Damian Lillard ($26)
Pascal Siakam ($19)
Cade Cunningham ($25)
Yes Morant ($22)
Jrue Holidays ($7)
Jaylen Brown ($21)
Jonathan Isaac ($2)
Terry Rozier ($6)
Tyler Herro ($9)
Zach Edey ($2)
Keon Ellis ($2)
Noah’s Thoughts:I didn’t go into this auction simulation with a plan (simply because it was just a simulation), but that’s not necessarily a bad thing. Sure, you can have a list of players to target that fit a specific build that you think fits perfectly and will win your league, but then your plan is thrown out the window after one or two players.
For example, Victor Wembanyama was traded for $92 in this league. You had to pay more to get the best players. Nikola Jokic was traded for $83, and Luka Doncic and Shai Gilgeous-Alexander were traded for $65. However, after Wemby, Jokic, and Luka left, some managers may have felt they needed to be a little more cautious and let me get Kevin Durant for $32. Fred VanVleet, who is usually selected about two rounds later than KD, was traded for $31 a little later in the draft.
The lesson here is not, “Look at this incredible value I got in a pointless mock!” In auction drafts, timing is everything and there is no one-size-fits-all amount for every player. Conversely, you don’t want to hold onto all your money just to let everyone else spend theirs, especially if they’re getting players at a bargain price. If other managers are conservative, draft guys early. If they get screwed immediately, step back and be patient. Zig when everyone else zigs.
They take a lot longer than snake drafts, but you can get incredible value in auction drafts if you play your cards right. My method in this draft was to set a maximum dollar amount in my mind when each player was drafted. If there was a player I wanted that was over my dollar amount, I didn’t overpay. This draft was a lot of fun, and if you stay disciplined, you can end up with an incredibly strong team.
