Strategist
To start: Jayden DanielsCommanders
Daniels’ passing performance in his debut was disappointing, and fantasy managers who started him didn’t care. The rookie rushed 16 times for 88 yards and two touchdowns. He ran on half of his pressured dropbacks and picked up 77 yards on seven total scrambles. Daniels also led the NFL in inside-the-five carries with three such attempts.
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To start: Justin Fields, The Steelers
Fields is the Konami Code quarterback who is still available in most leagues. He is only listed in 15% of Yahoo leagues. He rushed 14 times for 57 yards in Week 1. Fields was useful as a passer, ranking seventh in PFF passing grade, 17th in yards per attempt, and 21st in EPA per play. This is despite not scoring a single touchdown.
Fields was an efficient passer and that’s all we needed. His legs will do the rest for fantasy purposes.
Sit: Sam Darnold, Vikings
Darnold had an incredible performance in Week 1 and immediately changed my mind about him as a player. He will be a good streaming option in the coming weeks, but not in Week 2. Darnold faces the 49ers this week. San Francisco gave up the sixth-fewest fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks last year and beat Aaron Rodgers so bad in week 1 that we got to see a Tyrod Taylor touchdown in trash time. It’s Darnold’s first real test as a Viking and Vegas has Minnesota with an implied team total of 20.5. This is lower than the Giants.
Sit: Kirk CousinsFalcons
I don’t want to make sweeping statements after one week of football, but you can cut Kirk Cousins or at least bench him in 2QB leagues. Cousins, just 10 months removed from his torn Achilles tendon, didn’t return to form in Week 1. He averaged six yards per attempt and was intercepted twice with just one touchdown pass. More importantly, offensive coordinator Zac Robinson ran the offense as if he was trying to hide Cousins.
Only 8 of 32 teams had a positive success rate above expected in Week 1.
I don’t expect this to continue, but I’ve talked about it on Solo Pod. If the macro pendulum swings back to running the ball, it will impact the optimal strategy of all fantasy formats. pic.twitter.com/ILQMyJtHP4
— Adam Levitan (@adamlevitan) September 10, 2024
The Falcons had the second-lowest passing rate relative to expectations in Week 1, rivaling Arthur Smith’s Steelers. Cousins won’t be on the QB2 menu again until we see a change in his game and the run-first approach of the offense.
Running back
To start: Rhamondre StevensonPatriots
Stevenson dominated the Patriots’ backfield on every front. He outplayed Antonio Gibson 25-7 and saw the team’s only carry inside the five-yard line. Stevenson also ran a route on 72 percent of his team’s pass plays and caught three balls. He tied his career high in carries and set a new career high in touches. While the Patriots’ offense isn’t particularly exciting, Stevenson sees fantastic use for the RB1.
To start: Jordan Mason49ers
If you’re reading this, you probably know that you need to start Mason if you have it (assuming Christian McCaffrey (is excluded). I simply cannot stress enough that there are about five running backs he should not start over. Mason saw 78 percent of the 49ers’ rushing attempts and ran a route on 65 percent Brock Purdy’s dropbacks. Mason has also been an RB1, ranking sixth in rushing yards above expectations in the NFL Next Gen and 10th in completion rate. The 49ers are 5.5-point favorites over the Vikings this week, giving Mason plenty of opportunities to get going down the stretch.
Sit: Chuba Hubbard
Hubbard saw just 38 percent of Carolina’s carries in Week 1. As if that weren’t bad enough, the Panthers were a disaster, scoring 10 points with the worst EPA per play in the league. Workhorse play wouldn’t be enough to get home in this offensive environment, let alone a committee role.
Sit: Zamir WhiteThe Raiders
Like Hubbard, White proved to be just one piece of a multi-back approach in Week 1. White outperformed Alexander Mattison 13-5 but the latter recorded a 59 percent snap share. Mattison ran a route on 60 percent Gardner Minshewand six targets to White’s two. That was largely due to the Raiders trailing on more than half of their offensive plays. The bad news is that they are big underdogs against the Crows this week. Expect more Mattison and very little running as they play from the back.
Wide receiver
Dell failed to get home in Week 1, scoring fewer than 10 fantasy points with just three receptions for 40 yards and some rushing production. The Texans increased their passing rate to 11 from 2022, allowing Dell to run a route on 87 percent CJ StroudHe had a 23 percent target share and a 44 percent air yard share. There’s nothing to worry about with his usage and fantasy managers can make him work as a WR2.
To start: Brian Thomas JrJaguars
BTJ looks like the real deal.
Thomas was billed as a deep threat coming out of LSU, but was used in a variety of ways and had an aDOT of 11.8. He accounted for 21 percent of the Jags’ targets and was the recipient of Trevor LawrenceBTJ’s only throw in the end zone. Thomas also completed 77% of Lawrence’s dropbacks and saw some repetitions when the team went to 12 players. All the ingredients are there for BTJ to be a consistent fantasy factor throughout his rookie season.
Sit: Christian Watson, Packers
Watson’s role in Week 1 wasn’t small, but modest is a fair way to describe it. He saw 17 percent of the team’s targets and 23 percent of their passing yards. Watson was targeted in the end zone three times, though. It was each of those Love JordanThe end zone throws of . Normally, that would be a very good sign. For Week 2… not so much. The Packers are expected to start Malik Willis while Love is nursing a knee injury. Willis entered the league in 2022 and is still looking for his first career touchdown pass. He has the second-worst sack rate and sack pressure since entering the league. This is now an offense that will run the ball and struggle to score points.
Sit: Diontae JohnsonPanthers
Speaking of FCS-caliber offenses, the Panthers ranked 32nd in the NFL in EPA per play thanks to bottom-five performances through the air and on the ground. Bryce YoungJohnson’s first throw of the season was a pass intended for Johnson that flew over his head for an interception.
Johnson also failed to take over as the Panthers’ No. 1 receiver, racking up a 22 percent target share and an 18 percent air yard share. There’s simply no fantasy value to be had from Charlotte.
Tight end
To start: Brock BowersThe Raiders
It didn’t take long, but the best tight end prospect of my lifetime arrived. Bowers led the Raiders with seven targets and saw four first-read targets. He ran 63 percent of his routes from the slot. While tight end looks like a positional wasteland, Bowers is rising into the TE1 ranks every week.
To start: Colby ParkinsonRams
As usual, the Rams played a tight end nearly every snap in Week 1. That player was free agent addition Colby Parkinson. The veteran ran a route on 82 percent of the Matthew StaffordHe threw five dropback passes and saw five passes in the passing game. He ran the most routes of any tight end in Week 1. The Rams face the Cardinals in a game with a total that has increased by two points to 48 since the start. Parkinson, who ran every route for Stafford, is a sneaky bet to find the end zone.
Seated: Chig Okonkwo, Titans
Okonkwo got away with it in Week 1, scoring a touchdown on just two receptions. He ran a route just 55 percent. Will Levis‘s dropbacks and earned a seven percent target share. This isn’t groundbreaking news, but for reference, here’s a non-exhaustive list of players you can get on the waiver wire who project more points than Chig: Noah Fant, Jordan Akins, Greg Dulcich, Tyler Conklin, Zach Ertz, Theo Johnson
The Bears played Gerald Everett on Kmet in Week 1. Everett, who has five years of experience under Bears offensive coordinator Shane Waldron, ran the route on 64 percent Caleb Williams” dropbacks. Kmet’s route rate was 33 percent. He can be cut in all formats.