-
Andre Snellings, ESPN
Nikola Jokic has led the NBA in fantasy points per game each of the last three seasons. In two of the last three games, he has won the NBA MVP award (2020-21, 2021-22) and was a finalist for MVP last season, with many voters citing historical precedence. It was believed that if a player won the MVP award in three consecutive seasons, he should be considered one of the greatest of all time. How could it be Jokic, when he hadn’t won a championship?
Cue logic failed.
Jokic went on to have one of the most dominant playoff runs in recent memory, leading the Denver Nuggets to a convincing 16-4 record in the playoffs, easily winning the 2023 Finals MVP.
Now, entering the 2023-24 season, Jokic leads the NBA in fantasy points per game and the Nuggets have the best record in the NBA as they look to defend their championship.
Should Jokic be the heavy favorite to win this season’s MVP? If he stays healthy, has he locked up that third MVP yet? Let’s talk.
Jokic currently has the shortest MVP rating (+300) on ESPN BET, followed by Luka Doncic (+375), Joel Embiid (+750), Jayson Tatum (+800) and Stephen Curry (+1100). Giannis Antetokounmpo is also a relatively longshot at +2000.
If we look at the last five MVP winners, some commonalities stand out:
In addition to the trend of repeat winners, each of the winners produced excellent box scores. Using fantasy points per game in the ESPN system as a measure of production, the last five MVPs have averaged 57.7 FP/G.
This season, six players currently average in this range or higher: Jokic (62.6 FP/G), Embiid (61.2 FP/G), Donovan Mitchell (59.2 FP/G), Anthony Davis (58.1 FP/G), Devin Booker (58.0 FP/G) and Doncic (57.6 FP/G).
Another commonality among MVPs is that they tend to come from the best teams in the league, as measured by winning percentage and conference standings. But in recent years, the trend is no longer to use team achievements to estimate players’ impact. Note that the last three winners are from the third, sixth and third seeds in their respective conferences, not the first seed.
Instead, ESPN’s Real Plus Minus (RPM) has been a better indicator of the player’s impact on his team’s ability to win. Three of the last four MVP winners have ranked first in the NBA in RPM. And in the other season (2020-21), Jokic still had a slightly higher RPM score (sixth best in the NBA) than Embiid (seventh best), who was runner-up that year.
A certain number of games must be played before RPM scores converge to useful values, which is why RPM is currently not available for this season. But if we look at the +/- per 100 possessions as a very rough approximation, we see that three of the nine players considered have +/- scores above 15 points per 100 possessions: Jokic (16.4 PP100), Embiid (15 .5 PP100). ) and Tatum (20.8 PP100). The other six all have raw +/- field scores below 6.0 PP100.
There are currently only two players in the NBA with production and impact scores in the MVP range: Jokic and Embiid. The same two players who finished 1-2 in MVP voting, in some order, in each of the last three seasons. This suggests that these two should be the MVP favorites again.
Jokic has some narrative advantages in an early MVP case. On the one hand, some think he had good reason to become MVP last season, and since he finished this season with a championship, you’d think he’s owed one. But even more so, if Jokic could average a triple-double for the season (he was 0.2 fewer APG last season), that would make him the third NBA player to do so, and the first two (Oscar Robertson and Russell Westbrook) both won MVPs in their first triple-double seasons.
On the other hand, Embiid also has some narratives that work in his favor. He led the NBA in scoring two consecutive seasons and is currently the leading scorer again this season. But even more, there was a certain feeling that trade James Harden would weaken the 76ers. But, as of right now, Philadelphia is still tied for the best record in the Eastern Conference. If they can stay close to this level of success for the season, it would be a huge boon in Embiid’s MVP case.
From a betting perspective, Jokic has some future value to win the MVP even with the league’s shortest odds at +300. But this exercise suggests that the best value in the Futures MVP race right now is Embiid at +750.
Metrics that have been shown to be predictive of recent MVP winners suggest that at this early stage, both centers across the board are almost equally likely to win this season’s MVP. But Embiid has longer odds, and therefore more leverage if he wins, making him the best betting option through the first week of November.
