Could the Phillies really let Aaron Nola enter MLB free agency?

One of the most debated topics during the Philadelphia Phillies offseason is what the organization should do about free agent pitcher Aaron Nola. The 30-year-old pitcher has started 235 games over the past nine years for the Phillies, but will he pitch for Philadelphia in 2024?

According to latest report from USA Today’s Bob Nightengale, other Major League Baseball general managers believe the Phillies will let Aaron Nola enter free agency. Here’s the full explanation from veteran MLB Reporter Nightengale:

“Phillies owner John Middleton, one of the most aggressive owners in the game, wants to make sure this doesn’t happen again and hits the free agent market. He wouldn’t mind bringing back the starting Aaron Nola, but they were four years and about $100 million apart during their negotiations last winter, and it’s highly unlikely the gap will close completely… That would force Nola to surrender either in St. Louis, Atlanta, Texas, or maybe the Los Angeles Dodgers.

Aaron Nola’s name was connected to the St. Louis Cardinals before So it’s not surprising, but seeing the Atlanta Braves as a potential destination for the right-handed pitcher will grate with many Phillies fans.

According to MLB insider Jon Heyman of the New York Post, Aaron Nola is expected to receive a five-year contract in free agency totaling between $140 million and $175 million. Previous reports had Nola seeking contract worth more than $200 million and that was more than the Phillies were willing to commit to the man who has the seventh-most games started in franchise history.

So who could replace Aaron Nola in the Phillies’ starting rotation for the 2024 season? Well, the name chosen by Bob Nightengale of USA Today is Blake Snell, a finalist for the 2023 Cy Young Award. The left-handed pitcher finished last season with the best ERA in the National League (2.25) and the second most of NL strikeouts (234).

There are concerns about Snell’s inconsistency in strike throwing after having the most walks in the National League in 2023 (99) and third most in the 2021 season (69). Unlike Nola who has started 96 games over the last three seasons, Snell has only started 83. Snell has only two years of 30 or more starts in eight MLB seasons while Nola has five years of 30 starts or more in nine MLB seasons.

According to MLB insider Jon Heyman, Blake Snell is expected to receive a five- to six-year contract valued between $180 million and $200 million. After three years in San Diego, Snell is not expected to return to the Padres as there is speculation about the organization’s finances following their return. took out a $50 million loan to resolve “short-term cash flow problems”.

The Phillies already have two left-handed starting pitchers expected to be members of their starting rotation next season:

-Ranger Suarez had an up-and-down regular season after returning from injury, but in his four postseason starts, he allowed just four earned runs in 18.2 innings pitched with an average of batting .191 against.

-Cristopher Sanchez was a pleasant surprise for Philadelphia as he started 18 of his 19 games pitched during the regular season with a 3.44 ERA and just 16 walks in 99.1 innings pitched.

Phillies president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowksi has a long history of making big offseason moves. Before coming to Philadelphia, Dombrowski signed free agent JD Martinez to the 2018 Boston Red Sox team that won the World Series. Additionally, after losing the 2011 ALCS, Dombrowksi’s Detroit Tigers sang slugger Prince Fielder in the offseason and the 2012 Tigers returned to the World Series.

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