THE New York Islanders made several key summer moves in preparation for their final season at Nassau Coliseum, a year where young leaders like John Tavares, Kyle Okposo And Travis Hamonic all said it was time to move well beyond talk of rebuilding.
For fans and many outside observers who paid attention, those moves were enough to get the Isles back into playoff contention. At a minimum, the Coliseum should be retired with electric crowds in the postseason.
But not to mention what happens to the best-laid plans… well, what could go wrong and cause the islands to fail?
1. Will improving goaltending make enough of a difference?
Even with the notorious variance in goalkeeper stats and performances, there is no doubt that the 29-year-old Jaroslav Halak and his field partner Chad Johnson are better than the respective goalkeepers they replaced (38 years old Evgeny Nabokov and the unholy duo of Kevin Poulin And Anders Nilsson).
(You can get a good idea of how much Halak should be better than Nabokov in this position to Fear the End.)
But even though goaltending has been one of the major weak spots in recent years, the Islanders can’t hope to return to the playoffs just because they found a key position. Among those points is the continued growth of the young forwards, and the defense will need to at least maintain – and ideally improve on – last season’s 16th ranking with 30 shots conceded per game.
Yet without this upgrade between the pipes, the Islands wouldn’t stand a chance. What could harm him?
Halak could experience a relapse of the groin and abdominal injuries that plagued him two or three seasons ago. Two summers ago, he changed his off-season routine to address core strength and prevent a recurrence. It worked last year, and he was back to 52 games played.
Johnson could replicate his worst years in the AHL. While Johnson had a great 2011-2012 year with AHL Connecticut and an exceptional 2013-2014 year with Boston Bruins (just like its predecessor, Anton Khudobin), his record including seasons in the AHL is mixed. He should improve, but can he be as good as Nabokov on his best nights?
Both of the above situations could happen. It goes without saying that if Halak suffers a significant injury and Johnson flounders trying to replace him, it would be the perfect storm unless David Leggio excelled in relief. But if they rely on Leggio to carry the load, the damage for this season could already be done.
2. Will the Islanders optimize their new forward depth?
If the number one preseason topic for Islanders fans is how they’ve improved their scoring at forward, the number two topic is how to deploy their new depth up front. Simply put, players with significant NHL experience will need to be cut (barring injuries/IR), and some young waiver-exempt forwards should be the ones to force the move.
The additions of Mikhail Grabovsky And Nikolai Kulemin mean previous free agent additions like Cory Conacher And Jack Skille could miss the cut. More importantly for the status quo, we relied on fourth lines like Casey Cizikas, Colin McDonald Or Matt Martin are under pressure to regain their place.
For some fans, the nightmare scenario is that the Isles continue to use up every forward spot on veterans — and we haven’t even mentioned enforcers. Eric Boulton yet – while Anders Lee and or Ryan Stromé miss the cut.
For others, the nightmare scenario would be losing useful forwards on waivers, then finding themselves without injury insurance when their replacements are inevitably benched mid-season.
And then there are the lines. Beyond who makes up the list, there is the question of how it is used. The Islanders’ impressive depth at center — behind starters John Tavares and Frans Nielsen is newcomer Mikhail Grabovski, an impressive sophomore Brock Nelson, and rising talent Ryan Strome. That’s before we get to Cizikas, the outgoing fourth-line center who draws admiration from the coaching staff when he’s on his game.
That’s a lot of flexibility and a lot of options…if they are used wisely, and if no pre-season decision blows up in their face.
3. Will the health of key players hold up?
A fact that few season recaps and previews acknowledge is that the most important factor (after talent) in a given season is the number of injuries that plague a team. Bad injuries at the wrong time can sink a team (and if it’s a bad team, secure a top seed in the lottery). A season spent relatively injury-free is usually how banners are won.
There is a narrative that the Islanders’ 2013-14 season was killed by John Tavares’ injury in the Olympics. In fact, the season was already over before he flew to Sochi, and the team’s record even improved in his absence.
Tavares’ knee should be back in good shape – he was already ready to skate in May – so there are no additional concerns.
However, Calvin de Haan’s unlucky injury history and lighter frame are a substantive concern, and Lubomir Visnovsky’s age and concussion history are a real concern. We could add to that the concussion suffered by defenseman Travis Hamonic last year… a recurrence this year would create uncomfortable concerns.
De Haan finally got a chance to live up to the hype of the 2009 draft last season and is expected to play a key role on the blue line this year. The addition of Visnovsky was key to the playoff run in 2013; his early absence due to a concussion in 2013-14 helped kill the season.
In the event of a prolonged injury, the thin, green depth of the blue line could be tested. And as noted in the first question above, another nagging injury to Halak would be disastrous.
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From Rick DiPietro at the start of his bad luck in 2008, to Kyle Okposo and Marc Streit During the 2010 pre-season, in the midst of a rebuild, until Visnovsky last season, the Isles saw all too clearly how a serious injury to a key player can bring down the outcome of a season by several critical degrees. They also had months where an apparent outbreak of groin, hip or shoulder injuries necessitated fielding an unskilled team loaded with AHL players.
The difference this year is that they should have the depth to survive it.
