In 2024, the NBA Draft is still child’s play.
Going from college to the G League or international ball is extremely difficult, and aside from the occasional LeBron James or Victor Wembanyama, the prospect of a “sure thing” doesn’t exist.
Andrew Wiggins and Jabari Parker were tabbed as the next faces of the NBA after their 1-2 first-round selections in 2014, while Anthony Edwards was considered a relatively weak first-round pick in 2020. Now, Edwards is on the no superstar with the T-Wolves and neither Wiggins (Golden State) nor Parker (Cleveland) are at his level.
The project is almost 75 years old and is still not based on accurate scientific data. Still, selecting based primarily on talent — as opposed to just a college resume — remains the best draft route a team can take, especially if that team drafts in the second half of the first round.
College production is an added bonus, but outside of the lottery, signing a player with NBA-level talent has proven successful. The best place to find this talent is often on the previous year’s list of top high school recruits. If these guys are still available as the draft approaches the 20s and 30s, then something went wrong in their one year in college.
This makes sense, because just like the transition from college to the NBA, the transition from high school to college is also a massive transition. Players leave their hometown and experience life on their own for the first time while being expected to perform at a high level on the field.
Sometimes it doesn’t work.
Many things could have gone wrong during this year. Maybe the player attended a school where he found himself stuck behind a four-year star. Maybe he and the head coach didn’t see eye to eye, maybe an injury kept him sidelined for most of the season or maybe his work ethic was no match for a blue blood program.
Maybe he was just bad when he played.
The player is rarely blameless in these situations, so NBA teams should not ignore these potential red flags. But those reasons (generally) shouldn’t deter them from drafting a hyper-skilled player in the later stages of the draft.
Peyton Watson was the 12th ranked player 2021 ESPN Top 100 High Schools in the basketball rankings, a five-star recruit behind Paolo Banchero, Chet Holmgren and Jabari Smith, all now rising stars in the NBA.
Watson committed to UCLA, where he frankly wasn’t good. In 12.7 minutes per game, he averaged 3.3 points, 2.9 rebounds and 32.2% shooting from the field. When he played, he didn’t produce much for the Bruins and that bad year caused his NBA draft prospects to plummet.
Yet the Nuggets beat him in the first round. He’s now a star defender and a vital part of Denver’s future.
Jalen Johnson was the 13th ranked player in the 2020 version of these rankings. Although his time at Duke was objectively more successful than Watson’s at UCLA – Johnson averaged 11.2 points and 6.1 rebounds as a Blue Devil – he was not the dominant force that a rookie The consensus five stars is supposed to be, which caused Johnson to slip. down the draft boards as well.
Atlanta selected Johnson 20th and he quickly became a building block next to Trae Young, averaging 16 points and 8.7 rebounds in 2023-24.
Shaedon Sharpe was the third ranked player in the class of 2021 and committed to Kentucky, where he never took the field for reasons that aren’t entirely clear yet. But his talent was so undeniable that Portland took him in the lottery (seventh overall), and he is now the most important piece in the Trail Blazers’ rebuild, demonstrating high-level creation ability during his season rookie.
It’s not a foolproof plan.
Sometimes a player struggles in college for legitimate reasons and the red flags are raised so much that they follow the player all the way to the NBA. Sometimes picking the winning player for four years is a safer choice – see Jalen Brunson of the New York Knicks – and that The strategy probably results in finding a solid NBA player more times than the big swing on an ultra-talented player.
But a team selected late in the first round likely already has plenty of talented players on its roster, so why not go for the fences? It’s not a sure thing, but when high-level talent is available, teams should be willing to overlook a bad academic year and embrace that talent.
