Basketball is a game of timing. It has always been so. It is extremely important to play your best basketball and get hot in the playoffs. Shot variance plays a big role in a deep playoff run. A cold shooting slump could rob a team of the chance to advance further, and a hot streak could propel a team forward. In Oklahoma City’s case, both of those things happened and it worked in Dallas’ favor.
The Thunder found a way to limit Kyrie Irving And Luka Doncic as best they could. Of course, both superstars will always have good games and get theirs, but Oklahoma City’s defensive attack has found a way to slow them down. The Thunder didn’t lose because Irving and Doncic went nuclear — the Thunder lost because the Mavericks role players made a huge difference.
In the conference semi-finals, the Thunder dared PJ Washington And Derrick Jones Jr. to beat them. And that’s exactly what happened. In the NBA Finals, however, regression to the mean took place. The Thunder demonstrated a solid strategy, but one that proved unlucky.
In 44 games with the Hornets this season, Washington shot 32.4% from 3-point range. In 29 regular season games with the Mavericks, he shot 31.4%. In the first round, the Western Conference Finals and the NBA Finals, Washington shot 28.2% from long range. Against Oklahoma City, however, he shot 46.9%. He killed the Thunder throughout the series and ended up being Dallas’ X Factor. Sure, the Thunder certainly left Washington too open at times and paid the price, but he hasn’t been the same player since the series against Oklahoma City.
Jones Jr. scored more than 15 points against the Thunder in three of six conference semifinal games. In the eight games played since Game 6, he hasn’t scored more than 15 points once. He averages 6.0 points per game and shoots just 1 of 6 from 3-point range.
The Thunder planned to slow Doncic and Irving down and force the Mavericks role players to step up. Against Oklahoma City, that’s exactly what they did – and it’s what gave them the upper hand. However, taking the entire playoff sample, it was still the smart move for the Thunder – it just didn’t pay off this time around. Jones Jr. and Washington both struggled mightily against Boston, and it would appear that’s what the Thunder team envisioned.
Even when they weren’t left wide open, they still managed to hit tough shots and look like impact players against the Thunder. But both players heated up at the right time and elevated Dallas as a team. This is what allowed the Mavericks to qualify for the final. However, regression to the mean was always inevitable at some point, and now it’s happening on the biggest stage.
Doncic and Irving have had stellar performances, but Dallas is still down 3-0 and on the verge of getting swept. Oklahoma City’s strategy was good, and the data backs it up, but the ball just didn’t bounce the Thunder’s way.
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