Nikola Topić Full scouting report
Team: Red Star of Zvezda
Nationality: Serbian
Age: 18
Position: PG
Size: 6’6″, 198 pounds
After winning a gold medal with Serbia at the U18 European Championships, Nikola Topić had started his season with Mega MIS on NBA watch lists. But no one had put him at the top of the Adriatic League rankings in terms of goals and assists.
Topić’s identification this year did not require an extensive search. He quickly worked his way into the lottery conversation, coming up with rare numbers for an 18-year-old with the type of 6’6″ height that makes ball handlers easy to notice.
Topić would eventually transfer to Crvena Zvezda, giving him a chance to play EuroLeague games and scouts the opportunity to evaluate him against top competition. However, a knee injury occurred three games later and cost him two months and counting.
Projected role: Chief ball handler
Professional comparisons: Goran Dragic, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander
Best team: San Antonio Spurs, Washington Wizards, Toronto Raptors, Utah Jazz
Topić is a ball-dominant guard who is valued for his ability to create advantages at the point of attack, put pressure on the rim, and make plays for himself and his teammates off the dribble. He’s a lead guard who runs through offenses.
Goran Dragic has been a popular comparison for Topic due to his equally effective use of shift, body control, touch, and IQ to compensate for limited explosion. And even though Dragic finished his professional career with positive three-point shooting numbers, he wasn’t considered an incoming shooter.
Topić has also been inconsistent from behind the arc, but his shooting flashes and free throw percentages suggest his jumper is about to improve.
Ceiling project: Top five
Draught : Late lottery
Topić going top five will require a specific pick order, given that teams already stocked with lead guards aren’t likely to use a pick that high on him. However, the size of the position, historical production and correctable weaknesses could put him at Tier 1 for some front offices. And the San Antonio Spurs, Washington Wizards and possibly the Toronto Raptors and Utah Jazz could use some upgrades at point guards and point guards.
Topić could also be passed on by lottery teams that already have Cade Cunningham, LaMelo Ball, Scoot Henderson, Ja Morant, Trae Young or Fred VanVleet/Amen Thompson.
Topic doesn’t offer much on the ball, so he won’t be a great fit for teams like the Detroit Pistons, Charlotte Hornets, Portland Trail Blazers, Memphis Grizzlies, Atlanta Hawks, or Houston Rockets.
Still, at some point in this range of Nos. 8-14, he will look attractive as the best prospect available.
Topić uses every inch of his 6’6” height to his advantage as a ball handler and finisher.
Sportingly, he has strengths and weaknesses. His most functional traits are body control and coordination in the air, which he uses on layups without possessing much vertical explosion.
His size is not particularly strong, but he makes contact well.
And while he’s not the fastest player in terms of first steps or lateral movements, he is quick with the ball, which is most evident when he initiates quick counters.
Overall, the biggest concern regarding his physical profile and athleticism revolves around his defensive projection when guarding NBA point guards.
Rim/finish pressure
Topić owns possessions, given his effectiveness in beating team defenses in transition and creating advantages with his handling, timing and change of speed at the point of attack.
He is very dangerous in ball screen situations while destroying defenses and creating gaps. The majority of his points are scored in the paint, where he uses height, body control, settings and angles to create easy finishing chances.
Even without a reliable jump shot, he was still able to average 18.6 points with Mega MIS before switching to Red Star and injuring his knee.
Player
Arguably the most productive pick-and-roll wizard in the class, Topić has classic point guard vision and passing instincts on the move. The ability to manipulate defenses, draw attention and find the open man should continue to work in the NBA, where at least, if nothing else translates, teams can count on his ability to facilitate and to set up his teammates.
Confidence/aggression
A FIBA dominator and statistical leader in the Adriatic League, Topić also looked very comfortable in his limited minutes in the EuroLeague before going down. He operates with visible confidence and decisiveness, which should serve him well in the transition to being a rookie point guard in the NBA.
Consistency of shot
Topić is shooting 28.2 percent from three combined this season. And given his reputation and clear preference for driving, NBA defenses will have an obvious defensive game plan. He was also an ineffective catch-and-shooter in limited volume, which continues to underscore the idea that Topic won’t have much to offer as a ball-playing combo guard.
He showed a tendency to make hot shots in bunches, and he was consistently accurate from the free throw line. But overall, his jump shot has been unreliable this season.
Versatility
Aside from being a poor spot-up shooter, Topić showed very limited signs of going over the fences, cutting, or coming off screens. Whoever selects him will have to commit to using him on the ball and letting him correct his mistakes early on.
Defensive projection
NBA offenses will immediately target Topić, who is neither too fast nor too physical. He might struggle to contain the NBA’s smaller ball handlers, and he’ll be vulnerable to having plays taken away by hard screens.
