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As a 30-second piece of propaganda, Mississippi Governor Tate Reeves’ latest campaign announcement is a work of art. The dew on the football field is cool, disturbed only by the passing between his daughter and her teammates. The sun rises above the tree line. The soundtrack mimics an NFL hype mix. Emma Reeves has strong kicking skills, lands a powerful penalty kick in the net, and it’s clear the rising junior is looking for a spot on a college team.
“She works very hard at her game, early in the morning until late at night. She does not hope for a scholarship; she deserves it, like thousands of girls her age across America,” says Reeves, the only incumbent GOP governor with even the slightest suspicion. risk to lose his race next year. “But today, political radicals are trying to ruin women’s sport, by allowing biological men to access opportunities reserved for women. We have to draw the line here in Mississippi.
From a practical standpoint, Reeves has already drawn such a line – with his signature. In fact, he was the second governor in the country to sign a bill in 2021. prohibition transgender student athletes to join teams that match their gender identity, and instead force them to play on teams that match the sex assigned to them at birth. Since then, 20 other states have followed suit, and the imaginary scourge of trans women and girls playing on girls’ and women’s sports teams has become one of the last corners of anti-LGBTQ politics that isn’t a loser total politics.
Since 2015, when the Supreme Court governed As same-sex marriage rights expand nationally, there has been a massive shift in public opinion in favor of LGBTQ rights, to marry and to live simply like their neighbors – a shift that has produced faster than any other attitude change in a century. (No, really; the quantitative science about changes in opinion is not even up for debate. This one was at breakneck speed.)
But there is one notable caution: sports teams. Locker rooms are the last place most Americans cling to views that don’t fully adhere to LGBTQ rights. A survey in May found that 69% of Americans say trans athletes should only play on teams consistent with their birth gender, an increase from two years ago, when 62% of Americans said the same. thing in a Gallup survey. investigation. At the same time, the share of Americans who believe trans athletes should play on teams of their choice fell from 34% to 26% over the same period. These results follow with a Pew 2022 investigation on the subject. In that report, 58% of Americans said trans athletes should play on a team that matches the gender they were assigned at birth. Compare this to the share of Americans who support same-sex marriage, which now reaches 63%.
In other words, many Americans seem to think that the question of which jersey to wear is more like a question of competitive fairness than a question of civil rights. After all, majorities have clearly stated that they are against discrimination against trans people. Pew’s figure from last year reveals 64% support for non-discrimination laws protecting trans people’s rights to housing, employment and services.
But on the football field, these respondents look at their children and want a fair chance. It’s not that they have bought into the false and hateful ideas that trans people are so-called “groomers” or seek to invade locker rooms for the purposes of sexual perversion. But as Reeves says, there is a sense that their children are being mistreated.
And here’s what stands out from an electoral perspective: Even Democrats tend to abandon allowing transgender athletes to choose their bench. Although Democrats are much more supportive of this position (47% of Democrats versus 10% of Republicans), this position has faded over the past two years. In 2021, when the question was asked, 55% of Democrats supported having trans kids pick their team. But now, on the issue of requiring students to play on teams corresponding to the gender they were assigned at birth, Democrats saw their support for that position jump from 41% to a 48% majority over the past few years. last two years.
Among independents, the trends are aligning: a 33-63 split towards inclusion in 2021 is now a 28-67 split today.
And for Republicans, there is a lingering sense that things are moving too far toward trans inclusion. The Washington Post offers a clever visualization of this rise here.
Bottom line: Trans rights are being left behind in the increasingly tough alliance for the broader LGBTQ rights movement, and nowhere is this more evident than on the ground.
Last April, the Biden administration propose a rule that would, in some cases, allow schools that receive federal funds to require that students’ gender identity at birth match their team assignments, especially as the game becomes more competitive and the Students’ hormone levels may give an advantage to some athletes. The proposal opposed blanket bans; table tennis and basketball, for example, reward different physical skills. That didn’t exactly sit well with LGBTQ activists, but it was far better than anything they expected to find under a Republican administration.
Nationally, 22 states now have anti-trans sports laws on the books, according to to the Movement Advancement Project which follows this legislation. Sixteen of these laws cover everything from kindergarten to college, while five states are phasing them in when teams begin to become competitive, as early as fifth grade. Only Utah covers K-12 student-athletes, but not college.
Let’s be clear: many legislative measures have been taken to resolve problems that does not exist. Most of the cases identified by those advocating such bans involve elite athletes such as those who compete in college sports. The NCAAs positionwhich defers to each sport’s national governing body when possible and ultimately examines compatibility with Olympic standards for each team, pits fairness against inclusion, a microcosm of the broader debate that has become a political litmus test.
It is also worth remembering this fact: the population in question is relatively small. According to According to the Williams Institute, approximately 1.3 million adults and 300,000 young Americans identify as trans in a country of 330 million people. The best estimate is that of the approximately 200,000 women playing college sports in an academic year, we’re talking about 50 trans athletes.
Despite this, the United States House of Representatives in April pass an autonomous Invoice—shorter than this bulletin—this would allow require trans athletes to stay on the team corresponding to their identity when they first left the hospital in car seats. It will get nowhere in the Senate, and if by some miracle it passes, President Joe Biden has said he will veto it.
Republicans are also trying to add amendments to upcoming spending bills that include anti-trans, anti-diversity and anti-woke language, complicating an already perilous path to the start of the new fiscal year on January 1. october.
Culture war fights are rarely won – or lost – based on facts. Here, emotions are in control. And that’s why, from Mississippi to both coasts, Republicans are turning to these transgender messaging bills, which have taken their place alongside anti-abortion bills as vehicles to appeal to far-right voters .
Few trophies are questioned, but the message they send to trans kids is undeniable. A national health institute report Last year, 82% of trans people considered suicide and 40% attempted it. Rates are highest among children. But none of that seems to matter to some politicians, whether in Reeves’ ad or beyond. Even Democrats are starting to abandon some of their dogma about inclusion here, especially when it’s their daughters’ college prospects that are at stake. With the bogeymen of “groomers“In retreat, with fears of family implosion proving unfounded and no county clerk’s office turning into Sodom and Gomorrah over same-sex marriage licenses, the culture warriors need a battlefield. For now, this field is a dew-laden training plain in Mississippi. But it is very unlikely that it will be the only one moving forward.
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