The first College Football Playoff rankings are quickly approaching. Before the rankings are revealed by the CFP committee, I predict where each potential top 25 team could land.
The first of the six revelations of the CFP top 25 will take place on Tuesday October 31. Ahead of the announcement, here’s a prediction for how the committee might rank its top 25 teams. Note that these are my predictions and mine only. I look at head-to-head results, strength of schedule, games against ranked teams and more to help rank teams as I believe the CFP committee will. You can read the The official protocols of the CFP committee here.
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College Football Playoff Rankings Predictions: Top 25 Projections | Week 10
These forecasts are from Sunday October 29.
- Ohio State (8-0) — Eight FBS teams are undefeated, but Ohio State reigns supreme among the group with wins over Penn State and Notre Dame, the latter victory coming on the road. These ranked wins will impress the CFP committee enough to give the Buckeyes the top spot.
- Florida State (8-0) — Florida State’s 21-point win over LSU is the second-best win of any undefeated team this year. This will earn the Seminoles second place.
- Washington (8-0) — Washington has a win over an Oregon team that will surely be in the CFP committee’s top 10. That, plus the nation’s leading passer, Michael Penix, gives the Huskies third place.
- Georgia (8-0) — The reigning national champions, undefeated, occupy fourth place in the initial CFP rankings. Before you rail against these rankings, remember that Georgia opened the 2022 CFP rankings at No. 3 — and that was with a non-conference win over Oregon. In 2023, the Bulldogs have beaten only three winning teams, none of which will be ranked in the CFP rankings.
- Michigan (8-0) — The strength of Michigan’s schedule has been a topic of debate since the preseason, but Michigan has dominated every team that lines up in front of it. Nonetheless, the Committee will place the Wolverines at the bottom of the top five undefeated teams due to the strength of their schedule.
- Oregon (7-1) — Oregon’s big win over Utah will make the Ducks the committee leader among one-loss teams.
- Oklahoma (7-1) — The CFP committee values head-to-head victories. The Sooners beat Texas head-to-head and will therefore be ranked above the Longhorns.
- Texas (7-1) — Keeping with the head-to-head theme, Texas ranks higher than Alabama.
- Alabama (7-1) — Alabama ranks ninth while ranked wins over Ole Miss and Tennessee will stand out on the committee.
- Ole Miss (7-1) — Ole Miss continues the head-to-head trend following the Rebels’ loss to Alabama earlier this year. However, Ole Miss ranks above a one-loss Penn State thanks to wins over LSU and Tulane.
- Penn State (7-1) — Penn State’s best win this year came against an Iowa team that likely won’t be ranked in the committee’s initial top 25. This will keep the Nittany Lions outside the top 10.
- LSU (6-2) — LSU looks like the best two-loss team in the country behind the electrifying play of quarterback Jayden Daniels. The Tigers have the best path to becoming the first participant in two College Football Playoff losses, starting with a game against Alabama this week.
- Louisville (7-1) — Louisville has a win over Notre Dame and just shut out a good Duke team. The Cardinals have a strong resume that the committee will reward.
- Oregon State (6-2) – Wins against Utah and UCLA will see the Beavers open up 14th in the CFP rankings.
- Missouri (7-1) – Missouri comes in at 15th with just one loss to LSU, but the lack of a ranked win keeps the Tigers from being ranked higher.
- Kansas (6-2) — Kansas’ top-10 win over Oklahoma makes up for its loss to Oklahoma State earlier this year. The Jayhawks will be trending upward after their latest win.
- Notre Dame (7-2) — Notre Dame is 3-2 in its last five games, with just one victory against an opponent who will be ranked in the CFP rankings.
- Utah (6-2) — Utah picked up wins against UCLA and Southern California while only losing to top 15 teams.
- Southern California (7-2) — The Trojans have lost their only two games against ranked opponents, but they still have reigning Heisman winner Caleb Williams and the second-best offense in the country.
- UCLA (6-2) — UCLA’s win over Washington State has lost its luster, but the Bruins still look like a top-20 team.
- Air Force (8-0) — A review of past initial rankings shows that it will be difficult for a school like Air Force, even undefeated, to climb out of 20th place. For example, in 2022, undefeated Tulane opened 19th. This Green Wave team got a win over a Big 12 opponent. Air Force has nothing like it.
- Oklahoma State (6-2) — The Cowboys picked up a win against Kansas that looks better than ever after last week.
- Tennessee (6-2) — Tennessee hasn’t beaten a ranked team and a loss to Florida hasn’t aged well.
- Tulane (7-1) — Tulane’s only loss this year is to an Ole Miss team that will be a top 10 team in the committee’s eyes. Enough to guarantee the Green Wave a place in the ranking.
- Miami (FL) (6-2) — The CFP committee monitors the games, and while a loss to Georgia Tech makes the Hurricanes look bad, this Miami team is better than their record on paper.
PCP????: College Football Playoff Rankings Release Schedule
Notable College Football Playoff Rankings Questions
How much weight will consecutive championships have?
Georgia is a two-time defending College Football Playoff champion. No one would have any qualms about the Bulldogs opening the CFP rankings at the top. However, previous rankings placed more importance on what happened on the pitch than reputation. What path will the committee take on Halloween?
UNDEFEATED FOLLOW: Here’s a look at all the undefeated FBS teams
Where will Oklahoma rank after its first loss?
Oklahoma could fall between sixth and 11th in the CFP opening rankings after its first loss. Oklahoma’s head-to-head win over Texas still has value, but it remains to be seen how much the committee considers head-to-head wins inside the top 10.
ROCK CHALK: Kansas shakes up Big 12 rankings, beats No. 6 Oklahoma for first time since 1997
How much does the CFP committee think of undefeated teams like Air Force and Liberty?
Air Force and Liberty are undefeated teams that could be ranked outside the top 20 or not ranked at all come Halloween. The CFP committee has already stated that it will not rank James Madison undefeated since he is ineligible. What will be the fate of teams that could theoretically make the College Football Playoff?
