Reader Stewart C. brought a very interesting segment of A numbers game to my attention and asked if I could write on the subject at hand. On Friday, Todd Wishnev joined Gill Alexander to talk about betting on college basketball totals from a gambling perspective and it was a fascinating discussion, but one that may have been difficult to understand on air.
Before we get into it, I want to tell everyone that Burke’s Betting Blurbs will be moving to the free newsletter (the previous one) starting tomorrow. The goal is to reach even more people with these concepts and topics, which is why it will now be part of other daily emails.
Back to the Wishnev topic… Todd talked about a shortcut formula for calculating the number of possessions that have been played up to a certain point in the game and how that creates a betting opportunity with the live total. You should only calculate one team, as the other should be about the same, but you can do both just to make sure.
The formula is: Field goal attempts + (Free throw attempts * 0.5) + (Returns – Offensive rebounds). The halftime example that Todd used on air is that if there were 30 FG attempts, 10 FT attempts, 8 TO and 5 OReb, you would have 30 + 5 + 3, which would give a pace of 38 possessions, which is a very fast pace. A very slow pace in the first half would be 28 possessions or less. The “average” will be around 32 or 33.
The total lines of the full game are built on the expectation of rhythm. A game with a total of 125 involves a very slow pace, probably around 62 or 63 possessions. If a game moves faster than that, 125 likely won’t be enough for the total and the live betting line may not adjust properly.
Todd said in the segment that the median number of possessions in a game is 67.5, but you’ll see slow-paced teams that play with 63 possessions or fewer or fast-paced teams that play with 73 possessions or more. Games that are paced slower or faster than expected create opportunities for betting on in-game totals because they are played slower or faster than expected, creating the possibility of the game scoring lower or higher than expected. line.
The game’s algorithms will not properly take this into account. They are based on the pre-match total and expected pace. Additionally, there are usually more possessions in the second half than in the first half due to late fouls, teams trying to play faster to catch up, etc. If a game is ahead of its expected pace in the first half, you can reasonably assume it will likely stay that way.
There are exceptions to this rule, such as a game with very high shooting percentages that are likely to drop. Plays with a lot of turnovers create a “fake fast game,” as Wishnev noted. But the idea here is that the live betting algorithms built into sportsbooks are limited in their ability to know what’s actually happening in the game. The algorithms are mostly formula-based (purely math-based ), so you can find advantages in this market if you study live scores.
I texted Gill last night and he said he hoped to talk more about it with Wishnev, tentatively scheduled for Monday’s edition of ANG. I also complete Prime time action Monday and Tuesday and Gill and I will also try to expand on the topic further, especially with the matches happening while we are on air.
Thanks to Stewart C. for bringing this to my attention and I encourage readers and subscribers to contact us if they ever have questions like this about something said on air or something written here on VSiN.com.
