We’re just past the halfway point of the 2025-26 college basketball season, and while I’m still not ready to tell you who’s going to cut down the nets on the first Monday in April, I’m ready to tell you that it will absolutely be one of the eight teams below.
1.Michigan
Don’t let the slight wobbles of the past few weeks distract you from the fact that, at its best, no team in college basketball has looked more unstoppable this season than the Michigan Wolverines.
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Dusty May’s team is the first in sports history to beat three differently ranked opponents by 30 points or more, a feat they accomplished on January 2. Currently, they have 10 wins by 20 points or more, eight wins by 30 points or more, six wins by 40 points or more and one win by more than 50 points.
Michigan has the best overall defense in the sport, a true star in Yaxel Lendeborg, a freshman sensation in Morez Johnson, a unicorn big man in Aday Mara and a proven field general in Elliot Cadeau.
The pieces for the program’s long-awaited second national title are all there.
2.Arizona
Although Michigan might be the betting favorite to win the national championship, the Wolverines are not the No. 1 team in college basketball at the halfway point. That honor goes to undefeated Arizona, which also has perhaps the best overall record in the sport.
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The 18-0 Wildcats are a perfect 7-0 in Quad I opportunities and should be 20-0 overall when they travel to face fellow BYU on Jan. 26.
In an era where three-point shooting is more prioritized than ever, Arizona has played perfect basketball this season while mostly ignoring the perimeter. Only two of 365 Division I teams have shot fewer three-pointers than the Wildcats so far this season.
That’s not to say Zona isn’t fun to watch.
The Wildcats dominate the glass, take (and make) a high percentage of shots via a nice half-court offense and boast a quartet of the most entertaining players in the sport in Koa Peat, Brayden Burries, Jaden Bradley and Motiejus Krivas (cool Tobe Awaka too). They also made more free throws than their opponents, but it’s not particularly fun.
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3. Houston
The Cougars came within one successful shot (and another avoided a late-game collapse) of winning the program’s first national title last season. Despite this heartbreak, Kelvin Sampson’s 2025-26 team looks very capable of returning to this position in a few months.
The Cougars’ only loss so far remains a close loss to Tennessee at the Players Era Festival in Vegas in November. UH is 11-0 since then and should have a gaudy record in mid-February when it enters a critical three-game stretch where it faces Iowa State, Kansas and Arizona. How they handle those three should provide critical insight before March into just how much of a national title contender the Cougs are.
This team boasts star power in the form of Emmanuel Sharp, Milos Uzan and freshman sensation Kingston Flemings, as well as one of the best defensive players in the sport, Joseph Tugler. Add in arguably the best coach in the sport, and you have plenty of reason to believe this could be the year Houston finally wins the one honor that has eluded them.
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4. UConn
After back-to-back national championships, the Huskies never felt like a realistic title contender in 2024-25. Few people expected it to become a trend, and Dan Hurley made those who did it look foolish.
Connecticut is 18-1 with its only loss coming by 4 to Arizona in a game where leading scorer and rebounder Tarris Reed did not play. Since then, they have reeled off 14 straight wins, including Quad I victories over Illinois, Kansas, Florida and Seton Hall.
UConn may not have the potential to be as dominant as it was in ’23 or ’24, but they are certainly good enough to hoist the same trophy as the Husky teams.
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5. Purdue
They’re not quite the juggernaut that some predicted before the season started, but nothing from Purdue so far this season indicates that the Boilermakers don’t have the potential to win six straight games in March and early April.
Yes, their only loss was bad – a 23-point home loss to Iowa State – but it bears repeating that it was their a loss. The Boilermakers haven’t played a non-conference slate as hard as most of the teams on this list, so their overall resume isn’t as strong as the undefeated and other one-loss teams we discuss, but being able to navigate yet another heavy Big Ten schedule would solve that problem.
We thought Purdue would be the best offensive team in the country. They are. We thought Braden Smith would continue to put up absurd numbers in his senior season. He is. We thought the addition of Oscar Cluff would help solve the team’s interior defense issues. It happens.
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Teams are having bad nights. Purdue had a horrible night on December 6th. That doesn’t mean they’re guaranteed a horrible night in March.
6. Duke
There are so many things you can point to that justify the Blue Devils being here.
For starters, they have the guy who was the best player in college basketball. For two and a half months, Cam Boozer was even better than advertised.
Then there’s Jon Scheyer. He’s already proven he can take Duke to the sport’s final weekend, and perhaps the lessons he learned from last year’s crushing loss to Houston will help him get over the hump in a semifinal appearance in April.
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You have a sharpshooter in Isaiah Evans, a veteran guard in Caleb Foster, and another emerging option at guard in Cayden Boozer. You also have an ex-postman with unlimited potential in Dame Sarr, who is exactly the type of modestly stat player who “comes out of nowhere” and takes control of a tournament match just when her team needs a hero.
Duke can absolutely win anything.
7.Illinois
No team in college hoops is better fits the description of “modern basketball” than Illinois.
The Illini have four elite players who were professionals in Europe before making the jump to the United States, they convinced Kylan Boswell to return for his senior season, they signed one of the best players in the portal in Andrej Stojakovic (Cal), and like so many teams on this list, they have a superstar rookie (Keaton Wagler).
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Anyone can film, anyone can share, and it looks like 70% of them are 6’9 or taller.
While the defense is just good, not great, there is no team in college basketball that is more difficult to defend than the Illini. When that’s the case, you’re usually a top national title contender.
8. Florida
I STILL BELIEVE.
I know there are irate fans from Iowa State, BYU, Gonzaga and others right now. I don’t know what to say. I’m sorry. For what it’s worth, the Cyclones would have been next on this list, followed by the Cougars.
I chose to stick with Florida in this spot because of their ceiling, the fact that they seem to move around quite a bit, and because they still have the most complete frontcourt in the country.
The backcourt certainly remains an issue. Nobody disputes that.
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While Boogie Fland has started to turn his season around, Xaivian Lee is still struggling and Urban Klavzar is just a solid, not spectacular, option to go with Fland. Obviously, they’ll need more to repeat as national champions…but more is possible.
The Gators have won four straight, including a 24-point victory over Tennessee and a top-10 upset of Vanderbilt, and still project as a top-10 team in KenPom. Their six losses came by a total of 17 points (none more than 6) and all against quality opponents (being kind to Missouri here). Thomas Haugh is playing like a first-team All-American, and Alex Condon and Rueben Chinyelu aren’t far behind him.
There are still reasons to believe it.
