After months of evaluations and dozens of rumors, the official results of the NBA draft are always good to surprise.
Usually the shocker is a player who was drafted much higher than expected. But from time to time, it’s the opposite: a prospect whose name continues to escape the card given to the commissioner.
Add in the game-changing trade of an All-Star player, and the last decade holds many notable surprises.
Although the choices are subjective, the prior buzz around each prospect did not correspond to the actual outcome.
You may not know much about each prospect. But in the case of Bruno Caboclo, you may have been completely clueless.
Considering he didn’t appear in the mock drafts, the reaction to the Toronto Raptors going 20th overall in 2014 was entirely reasonable. Caboclo was an unknown striker from Brazil who drafted analyst Fran Fraschilla memorably labeled “in two years to be in two years.”
And he just never succeeded.
Caboclo ended up playing 25 games for Toronto. He briefly held a starting role for the Memphis Grizzlies during the 2018-19 season, but otherwise had a minimal impact in the NBA.
In the 2013 draft, the Milwaukee Bucks turned to a high-profile international player named Giannis Antetokounmpo. This one worked pretty well.
Unfortunately, the lighting didn’t strike a second time in 2016.
Milwaukee used the No. 10 pick on Thon Maker, who became the first prep player to turn pro in 12 years due to his age. Jonathan Wasserman of B/R, in his last mockeryranked Maker as the No. 43 pick.
Nonetheless, the Bucks took a gamble on developing the 7-footer into a floor-spacing center. Maker lasted over two seasons in Milwaukee, averaging 4.5 points and 2.6 rebounds before being dealt to the Detroit Pistons. He last played in the NBA in 2021.
Usually, draft day trades simply involve trading rights to a prospect with future picks involved.
But in 2017, the Chicago Bulls and Minnesota Timberwolves broke the mold with a stunning deal. Chicago sent Jimmy Butler and the 16th pick (which became Justin Patton) to Minnesota for Zach LaVine, Kris Dunn and the No. 7 selection (Lauri Markkanen).
The initial outlook was very unkind.
Leaving Butler marked the official start of a rebuild, but Chicago was still parting ways with him. And a valuable first-round selection for a player recovering from an ACL injury (LaVine), a guard who struggled in his first season (Dunn), and a rookie (Markkanen).
The good thing for the Bulls is that hindsight doesn’t paint such an ugly picture, largely because Butler requested a trade from the Wolves a year later.
Prior to his lone season at Missouri, Michael Porter Jr. had been touted as the No. 1 overall prospect in 2018. That advantage faded due to a back injury, but he was still considered a selection probable early.
Before the project, NBA.com gathered a consensus from 10 mocks that included Porter as the sixth pick.
He fell to the Denver Nuggets at 14th overall on draft night.
Porter didn’t play in 2018-19 because of this issue, but he debuted the following season and broke out in 2020-21. He has become a key player for the Nuggets, getting a massive extension worth up to $207 million in 2021 and helping the team win an NBA title in 2023.
It’s safe to say that at least seven organizations that chose Denver now regret not taking a chance on Porter.
Cameron Johnson finished a quality college career with 16.9 points per game as a senior at North Carolina.
At 23, however, Johnson seemed to have an easy scouting report. Although he is an elite shooter from long range, he would likely only be a complementary piece in the NBA. He placed 30th on B/R’s final draft. Jonathan Wasserman.
Either the Phoenix Suns disagreed or were perfectly content to add a limited but specific set of skills.
Phoenix shocked the draft world and, via a trade with Minnesota, landed Johnson at No. 11 overall.
Unlike Caboclo and Maker, this approach proved to be sound. Johnson immediately earned a backup role and finished third in Sixth Man of the Year voting in his third season. He headed to the Brooklyn Nets as part of Kevin Durant’s return in the 2023 blockbuster trade.
Heading into the 2022 draft, it seemed clear that Auburn’s Jabari Smith, Duke’s Paolo Banchero and Gonzaga’s Chet Holmgren would be among the top three picks. So this rise to #1 wasn’t amazing.
ESPN’s Adrian Wojnarowski, however, said on the morning of the draft that “more and more firm“the expectation was Smith, Holmgren then Banchero.
You know, until literally five minutes before the Orlando Magic officially got on the clock.
Orlando has impressively managed to hide its interest in Banchero, who won Rookie of the Year honors in 2022-23. He followed that campaign with an All-Star nod in his second season.
While it’s too early to say for sure that the Magic made the right choice, they’re certainly off to a good start with Banchero.
