With the first round of the ACC and Big 12 tournaments kicking off on Tuesday, the madness of Championship Week is about to envelop us all.
Here are four things that could make this week even crazier than most.
1. A power conference nomination thief
When you hear the term “bid stealer” this time of year, you usually think of a conference like the Atlantic 10 or Missouri Valley; The ones where there is a team or two that are able to make the NCAA tournament, and then everyone else is fighting to “steal” a bid from one of the at-large teams in the bubble.
But the big guys can also steal deals.
The old Pac-12’s (RIP) multiple conference tournament winners were teams that were comfortably on the outside looking in against the field of 68 when championship week began. THE Georgetown Hoyas won the 2021 Grand Est Tournament despite a start to the week with a losing overall balance sheet. Just last year, NC State scored an incredible five wins in five straight days to win the ACC Tournament title and eliminate Oklahoma from the Big Dance.
So keep an eye out for someone warming up in one of the Power Five tournaments this week and ruining everything for a team that’s been living on the edge for a month. In fact, we can probably just call it the power four for this week, because unless LSU where South Carolina wins the SEC Tournamentwe’re almost certainly talking about a tournament champion who was already dancing.
The power conference most likely to produce a bid stealer? It must be the ACC.
Sure, Duke is incredible and has dominated the conference to a level rarely seen, but the ACC hasn’t seen a No. 1 seed win its postseason tournament since 2018. If the Blue Devils are eliminated at any point this week in Charlotte, and someone other than Louisville or Clemson cuts down the nets, the league’s automatic bid representative will once again be a team earning a double-digit seed in the dance.
2. Auburn could lose No. 1 overall seed
Thanks in large part to the supernatural strength of this year’s SEC, Auburn put together a historic rundown of the NCAA Tournament this season.
The Tigers have a whopping 16 wins in Quadrant I, by far the most of any team in the country, and the most of any team since the NCAA moved to the quadrant system. They’re a combined 11-0 in games outside Quadrant-I, they’ve played the toughest schedule in America by any measure, and they clinched an outright championship in the toughest league in sports before the final week of the regular season even began.
Naturally, many people claimed that Auburn had clinched the No. 1 overall seed in the NCAA tournament before the calendar even flipped to March.
Maybe they spoke too soon.
As good as the Tigers are, the most advanced metrics used by the NCAA Tournament selection committee think Duke, at the moment, is better. The Blue Devils are No. 1 on the NET, No. 1 on KenPom, No. 1 on the BPI and No. 1 on T-Rank. Duke has also lost just once since last November, while Auburn has lost its last two regular season games.
Oh yeah, and Duke beat Auburn head-to-head.
Despite one of the strongest NCAA Tournament resumes we’ve seen in recent memory, if Auburn loses early in the SEC Tournament and Duke takes care of business in Charlotte, there’s a good chance the Tigers could be relegated to No. 2 overall come Selection Sunday.
3. St. John’s is very angry or St. John’s makes everyone very angry
Without a doubt, one of the best stories of the 2024-25 college basketball season has been that of Rick Pitino and the St. John’s Red Storm. The Hall of Fame head coach breathed life into New York’s long-dormant program, leading the Johnnies to their first Big East regular season title in 40 years.
St. John’s is 27-4 overall and will enter this week’s Big East tournament at Madison Square Garden as a 1 seed and a heavy favorite to win its first league tournament title since 2000.
Let’s leave Pitino and all the hubbub over St. John’s return out of the equation for a moment. If you said that any team up with any The head coach had the potential to enter Selection Sunday as a two-time Big East champion and with a 30-4 overall record, one could just assume this team was in contention for the No. 1 seed. At the very least, one could assume that this team had landed one of the #2 seeds.
This may not be the case in St. John’s.
As stellar as the Red Storm’s overall record is and as sparkling as their No. 5 (Coaches Poll) and No. 6 (AP Poll) national rankings are, they don’t have the tournament depth that many of the teams they are battling for position with.
St. John’s currently sits in 16th place in the NET rankings and has just four wins in Quadrant I. That’s the fewest of any team in the top 20 outside of Gonzaga, which plays in the West Coast Conference and is currently projected to be the No. 8 seed.
If St. John’s wins the Big East tournament and gets second place, the Committee will have to justify it by invoking the famous “eye test”. This will upset a handful of teams with more quality wins and better computer numbers. On the other hand, if St. John’s wins 30 games before Selection Sunday and wins both Big East championships and doesn’t win the top two spots for March Madness, Pitino could stage a one-man riot in the middle of Times Square.
Both options are fun if you don’t have a skin in the game.
4. Delaware could join an elite group
There are only two teams in the history of Division I college basketball that have made the NCAA Tournament by winning five games in five days to capture their conference tournament title.
The first was UConn in 2011. Led by the incredible play of star guard Kemba Walker, the ninth-seeded Huskies made history with an incredible run that included a blowout victory over top-seeded Pitt in the quarterfinals, an overtime victory over Syracuse in the semifinals and a three-point victory over Louisville to win it all. Walker and company then carried that success to the Big Dance, where they made a surprise run to win the program’s third national championship.
Unlike UConn, last year’s NC State team had no chance of making the NCAA tournament if they didn’t pull off a miracle in their conference tournament. The Wolfpack did just that, winning five games in five days, a series highlighted by stunning upsets against in-state rivals Duke and North Carolina, as well as a thrilling overtime victory over Virginia. The magic continued deeper into March as the Pack racked up four more wins, punctuated by another Duke upset to send the program to its first Final Four since 1983.
Championship Week is young, but we already have a team poised to join UConn and NC State in the five-peat club. If they can get the job done and match the success of the Huskies and Wolfpack in the Big Dance, well, it’s safe to say it would be the greatest March Madness story of all time.
Delaware entered last Friday having lost six straight games to end its regular season, and 11 of its last 12. The Blue Hens (Blue Hens!) were ranked 267th on Ken Pom, were the 12th seed out of 14 teams in the Coastal Athletic Association tournament, and were an extremely safe bet to not make it out of the weekend.
The Blue Hens (Blue Hens!) found their touch from the outside and earned a first-round victory over 13th-seeded Stony Brook. Then they Really found their touch from the outside. Delaware beat fifth-seeded Campbell by 17, hung 100 points in a 22-point win over fourth-seeded William & Mary, then toppled top-seeded Towson by 10. Now the only thing standing between the Pools and the NCAA Tournament is a Tuesday night matchup with second-seeded UNC Wilmington.
The last time Delaware won five straight games against DI opponents? December 2023. Now, they are one win away from making it in a single five-game stretch on the biggest stage their conference has to offer.
No one is saying put Delaware in your Final Four if they can get past Wilmington, but maybe count on them making it out of the First Four in Dayton.
