2026 MLB MVP odds: Langford, Merrill are top sleepers

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Spring training is in full swing, the World Baseball Classic is looming, and Opening Day will soon follow.

We turn our attention to the various awards races, including the American League and National League MVPs. Unsurprisingly, Aaron Judge and Shohei Ohtani lead the pack, but there may be value further down the line.

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Below I analyze the AL and NL MLB MVP Odds for the 2026 season and explain why Wyatt Langford and Jackson Merrill are great sleeper options for your future predictions.

Odds of winning AL MVP 2026

Odds from DraftKings, one of our best betting sites. Register with our DraftKings promotional codeor get one of our others sports betting promotions.

Odds were last updated on 3-4.

Odds of winning the 2026 NL MVP

Odds were last updated on 3-4.

MLB MVP futures betting

Before opening day, I don’t like to focus too much on the chalk picks. There is no real value in betting Shohei Ohtani at -125 or Aaron Judge at +225. Feel free to disagree, but both players have injury histories, and even if they haven’t, I don’t want to invest too much before a regular season pitch is thrown.

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And that way, if Judge or Ohtani go out with a bang, I can abandon the market altogether or invest differently as more information comes to light. For now, I like to target a few players that are a little more on the fringes with upside potential.

Check back as the season progresses for more MVP picks, as I update my analysis as the data comes in.

THE Texas Rangers racing outfielder Wyatt Langford through the minor leagues after selecting him fourth overall out of Florida in 2023. He was a polished college hitter, and while the major league results have been a bit disappointing so far, he is an attractive option to break through in 2026 and reach the highest plateau.

He’s a legitimate five-tool talent, much like Boston Red Sox outfielder Roman Anthony. The difference is that Anthony is +1700 entering his second season (first full year), while Langford is +4000 entering his third. I expect Langford to make progress in his strikeout rate, which was a high but not abysmal 26.4% last season. He doesn’t have a history of high K%s, and we shouldn’t expect that to be the norm now.

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Langford also knocks the shit out of the ball. He ranked in the 87th percentile for barrel rate, 82nd for average exit velocity, 81st for hard hit rate and 90th for walk rate. He has patience and makes good hard contact with consistency. He also plays solid defense on the court and was in the 88th percentile in sprint speed. A 40-40 season isn’t the craziest outcome to contemplate.

On the National League side, San Diego Padres outfielder Jackson Merrill was just on the cusp of winning Rookie of the Year in 2024, and the expectations were sky-high. But injuries limited him to 115 games, and he stole just one base after slipping in 16 as a rookie. He also saw his strikeout rate increase from 17% to 22.4%. As with Langford, we can expect positive regression based on past performance in the minors.

He was still an above-average hitter (116 wRC+, 3.0 FanGraphs WAR), but this was a step back. His expected hits were still in the 86th percentile, and he lifts the ball at an elite level, rarely hitting grounders. If he can get his hard hit rate and exit velocity back to where they typically were in 2024, a much better outcome is in prospect.

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Previous MVP winners

Here are the last 10 AL and NL MVP award winners, with Shohei Ohtani leading the way as a four-time winner, with two in the AL and two in the NL. Only Frank Robinson has also won the MVP award in both leagues.

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Barry Bonds holds the record for most MVP awards (seven)

The New York Yankees have won the most MVPs in MLB history with 25, while the St. Louis Cardinals are second, leading all NL teams, with 21. No player from the Arizona Diamondbacks, New York Mets or Tampa Bay Rays has ever won the MVP award.

Past AL MVP winners

Past NL MVP winners

Popular MLB Futures Markets

MLB MVP Odds Explained

Most sportsbooks display odds in the American format shown above. When Goldschmidt won the MVP award in 2022, his odds had a minus (-) sign in front of the number for much of the season.

This means that in August, a bettor had to wager $6,000 to win $100 betting on Goldy to win the MVP title. Before the season starts, almost every player will have a plus sign (+) in front of their ratings.

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That means a bettor would have won $200 for a $100 bet on Ohtani before the season started.

If US odds aren’t your thing, just use a tool like our odds converter to change the odds to decimal or fractional format. Most online sportsbooks also give you the option to change the format of the odds you see.

This article was originally published on Covers.comread the full article here and check out our best betting sites or see our top sports betting promotions.