The following is an excerpt from the latest edition of Yahoo’s fantasy football newsletter, Get to the Points! If you like what you see, you can subscribe for free here.
Hey, let’s check out the year-to-date production of consensus first-round picks in fantasy football drafts…
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Christian McCaffrey, IRa choice likely doomed to failure, likely to miss six weeks or more. Gah.
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Tyreek Hill, WR17still excellent, but his quarterback is injured and has no timetable for return.
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CeeDee Lamb, WR16This man’s team just got trampled by the Saints, but otherwise we’re feeling good.
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Breece Room, RB6he picked up exactly where he left off last season, although he may have a slight Braelon Allen problem. Good choice of draft.
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Bijan Robinson, RB16his team has its flaws and his QB is a little creaky, but he looks healthy. Good pick. At some point a touchdown would be appreciated.
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Ja’Marr Chase, WR41He was targeted 11 times in two games and his most notable play was being flagged for a 15-yard personal foul.
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Justin Jefferson, WR4everything was going well until he injured his quadriceps on Sunday.
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Amon-Ra Brown Street, WR27He had a great game and a disastrous game, and is now dealing with a leg injury of an unspecified nature.
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Jonathan Taylor, RB23he runs well but his QB is the goal line defender and the team is not interested in throwing to him.
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AJ Brown, WR32injured his hamstring in training last week, was unavailable Monday night and he is likely to miss week 3.
*GASP*
This is a minefield. A truly terrible first round. Only one player with a top-10 ADP is currently a top-five scorer at his position, and that guy is dealing with an injury. Wow.
Drafters can rightfully look forward to CeeDee Lamb, Breece Hall, and Bijan Robinson — who seems to be the best player on the court every time he plays — and we should consider Ja’Marr Chase a bargain buy. Plus, if Justin Jefferson has truly avoided a serious injury, he’s a winner, too.
But the rest of the round is, uh… woof. It’s tough.
Of course, in a season without a clear first-rounder, we’re all in a slightly different version of the same ragged boat. That could just mean that 2024 is shaping up to be a season dominated by sleeper players and sneaky waiver gems. If so, it’s going to be a big year for the truly obsessive hardcore gamers among us.
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Now let’s discuss what works…
Every fantasy season is, in its own way, weird and wacky, unprecedented. We find ourselves today in a year where there were no clear right answers in the first round, which is not the case at all. Even with chaoswe have to play with the cards we are dealt.
Let’s take a look at the unexpected names currently leading the scoring charts in the three big positions, as well as a number that explains and supports their success:
QB1, Baker Mayfield: 73.5 percent shooting — Baker has simply struggled. He opened the season with a 24-of-30 performance against Washington, then followed with a 12-of-19 effort at Detroita game in which he was constantly harassed. Through two games, this is the best version of Mayfield we’ve seen so far. He’s never shot 65 percent in a season, but he can’t miss his shots these days.
Of course, completion percentage doesn’t tell the whole story of a QB’s accuracy. Here’s another stat that helps tell the story of Mayfield’s first two games: 7.7 yards after a catch per completion. When a quarterback is very accurate in his ball placement, YAC usually follows. Mayfield is currently breaking his record for YAC per completion by two yards. He’s been truly awesome.
RB1, Alvin Kamara: 6 rushing attempts inside the 10-yard line — Kamara currently leads the NFL in touchdowns (5), four of which have come from inside 12 yards. He is tied for the league lead in rushes inside the 10-yard line and is second in rushes inside the 5-yard line (4). Taysom HillIt should be noted that the ball has not yet been carried into the red zone. For the first time in all time, the Saints are simply feeding the team’s best ball carrier in scoring situations and, surprise!, it’s working spectacularly.
WR1, Chris Godwin: 58.2% slot percentage — Godwin actually ran 78.3% of his routes from the slot in Detroit according to PFF, and it was clearly a winning approach. In his best seasons, he operated as Tampa Bay’s primary slot receiver, but he was cut last year and finished as the WR33 overall. It’s no coincidence that he’s finding success in a familiar role. Plus, the Bucs have clearly demonstrated that slot routes don’t have to be short-yardage chain moves — large rooms are possible.
