Next June we will see a first winner as MVP.
This season just has that vibe. The winners of the latest MVP awards will no doubt be in the mix, but voters get the story. That means they’ll be hesitant to award Nikola Jokic a fourth MVP without a clear-cut season, which is a big ask, especially on a Nuggets team that most experts expect to take a step back in the regular season. Joel Embiid is still good enough to win, but if he and Philadelphia focus on the playoffs, will he make it to 65 games to qualify? Giannis Antetokounmpo can never be excluded from these lists, but questions of team success and his own numbers come into play.
However, a group of newcomers is ready to take over. My prediction:
2024-25 NBA MVP:
1.Luka Doncic
2. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander
3. Jalen Brunson
4. Nikola Jokic
5. Jayson Tatum
This is the third year in a row that I have chosen Doncic. I will be right in the end.
Doncic looked every bit the MVP last season, averaging 33.9 points, 9.8 assists and 8.4 rebounds per game last season – and the Mavericks should be better this season on offense. The addition of Klay Thompson will help space the floor (teams have helped Derrick Jones Jr. in ways they can’t with Thompson), and a more mature Derek Lively Jr. in the paint gives Luka a threat of lob.
Doncic is going to average a triple-double for the season, or get very close to it, and that plus the Mavericks will get him the prize.
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander was second in MVP voting a season ago and has a better team around him this season – if the Thunder were to go around the pack in the West with the better record, he could run away with MVP . Brunson would be where I would put my money if I was a bettor, he has longer odds than everyone else (+1400 at Bet MGM) and I think he is a sneaky good candidate. He was fifth in MVP voting a season ago and the Knicks should have a better offense with Karl-Anthony Towns helping New York play five-and-outs, which opens up driving lanes and opportunities. If the Knicks push (or overtake) the Celtics for the No. 1 seed in the East, Brunson will get a lot of love.
Jokic, Antetokounmpo and the Celtics Jayson Tatum will absolutely garner votes and could win it, the odds seem longer. For Jokic and Antetokounmpo, the numbers will be there (and the Greek Freak defense helps his case), but will the level of team success needed be there compared to Doncic/SGA/Brunson? For Tatum, the question is not the success of the team but rather the depth of this team: he does not need to carry this team, he does not need to play like an MVP every night to They have a chance, and while that’s great for the Celtics’ title chances, it hurts him in the MVP race. Fair or not.
Another name to watch – not to win it but to land in the top five this season – is Minnesota’s Anthony Edwards. His day is also coming on this list, it could be in a few years.
